Here are my week 7 picks. It is getting harder to come up with enough different story lines each week. I’m just going to need to watch the NFL network a lot more than I currently am. I really shouldn’t have wasted all that time watching the presidential debate this week. Did anyone else notice Jeff Triplett calling McCain for a false start?
Last Week: 43.65 – 1
Season Total: My debt – My IQ
Byes: Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia: The NFL is currently trying to use themes for its bye weeks this season. This week is Bye Bye Birdies week. Which reminds me, I need to put some more corn into my Jaguar feeders.
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Chargers 24 Bills 21: In a throwback Sunday
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Saints 30 Panthers 21: Drew Brees continues to put up good numbers throwing to 27 different receivers.
If this is a game that gets away from the Packers then, yes, it will be a long season. The Seahawks are limping into this game. Road game, but very winnable. If the Packers play down to the level of competition it will be tough, but the Packers are definitely the better team this week.
Seattle is injured everywhere. The defense and offense are missing parts. Hasselbeck did not practice on Friday yet, but he does expect to play. We can finally play a team more hurt than we are. This is also a team that has fed on the weakness of the NFC West for years and is just not that good any more. Seattle’s offense is 18th in scoring and 22nd in yards.This is good for a Packers team that has struggled. The Packers faced the number one rush offense in the league last week and had troubles, but so has the league. Saying we have had trouble stopping the run against the Vikings and Falcons is no disgrace. Still, this will be another test. Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett are part of the sixth best running attack in the league. Where Seattle is weak now is the passing game (26th overall with 156 yards a game). This is good for our suffering DBs. Hasselbeck has a 57.7 QB rating. The Packers should mix in the run blitz and hold down the edges. Pass rush will not be as key to start the game, the DEs should focus on contain responsibilities.
Here are my week 6 picks. In a non-result prediction, I am going on record as saying that ESPN will put up a graphic this week during the Monday night game saying that that game is the first in NFL history to have “A td rushing, a td passing, a field goal, a wide receiver catching a pass with the initials BE, the wind out of the east at more than 5 miles per hour, a cheerleader with a lisp, 2 players with hiccups and a hot dog vendor who had the mumps at age 7.”
Last Weeks Picks: 547 – 5
Season Total: Dow Jones 2 weeks ago – Dow Jones now (best winning percentage ever)
Byes: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
Three of these teams have injured QB’s and really benefit from the bye. Kansas City actually does not have quarterback on their roster. Though, on a positive note, Larry Johnson does get more yards rushing this week than last.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Bears 23 Falcons 16: The Bears miracle season continues. If Kyle Orton keeps performing at his current level, it won’t be long before he has Bear fans forgetting about Henry Burress and Moses Moreno.
There were a lot of upsets last week. Heck, after the Packer game alone, there were 4 people, 1 dog and 5 pieces of furniture upset. I think I have a pretty good handle on the picks this week. If they don’t start getting funnier, I may have to start claiming that I am actually trying to pick the right teams.
Last Weeks Picks: 143-7
Season total: 2.45 x 10^3-29
Bye Teams: Browns, Jets and Raiders go 0-0 this weekend. Rams still manage to lose.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Titans 23 Ravens 16: After the win, Titan quarterback Kerry Collins celebrates by letting the entire team use his senior citizen discount at Denny’s for a celebration supper.
Good time for the Packers to come home and play a team we can beat. Atlanta is not a terrible team, but the Packers could win this one and probably should. If the Packers can finally find some motivation and build a little momentum they should do just fine. That’s the hope at least.
Atlanta is the best running team in the NFL and we will put out our 23rd ranked rush defense against them. Atlanta is two different teams though. In their two wins they average 251 yards rushing a game, but they only average 111.5 in their two loses. Passing is their constant; 139.5 net in games they win and 136.5 in games they lose.The Linebackers have to start attacking the line and taking on blockers to stop the run. Barnett and Hawk were missing a lot in the two loses. If the Packers are without Hawk this will hurt even more. Our DEs will have to maintain contain on the run game. Atlanta will stick to the run even when losing so discipline will be necessary. With all the penalties in the first four games discipline is not our strong suit. McCarthy should be stressing this much more. Even if we get a lead Atlanta will not put the game in Matt Ryan’s hands. Atlanta has not played a close game so if it comes down to it in the end it will be a mystery how they will respond. They average 9 points a game when they lose and 36 points when they win.
Expect passing this week. Griese had just a stupid 67 pass attempts last week against the Bears. Gruden wants to throw. That is part of who he is. The running game is the best thing going for him. Graham is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and Dunn is getting 5.2 yards per carry. Griese is an 83.2 career rated passer and in the midst of a 71.3 rating for this season.Three picks in a game is just not going to help. Still, Tampa has the 27th ranked pass defense and the Packers are locked in the 22nd ranking so far. This game also pits the Bucs’ sixth ranked pass offense against the Packers’ seventh ranked passing offense. Packers injuries and Bucs age in the defensive backfield will only add to the barrage. Expect to see the ball in the air a lot.