TimesFour

Good time for the Packers to come home and play a team we can beat. Atlanta is not a terrible team, but the Packers could win this one and probably should. If the Packers can finally find some motivation and build a little momentum they should do just fine. That’s the hope at least.

Atlanta is the best running team in the NFL and we will put out our 23rd ranked rush defense against them. Atlanta is two different teams though. In their two wins they average 251 yards rushing a game, but they only average 111.5 in their two loses. Passing is their constant; 139.5 net in games they win and 136.5 in games they lose.

The Linebackers have to start attacking the line and taking on blockers to stop the run. Barnett and Hawk were missing a lot in the two loses. If the Packers are without Hawk this will hurt even more. Our DEs will have to maintain contain on the run game. Atlanta will stick to the run even when losing so discipline will be necessary. With all the penalties in the first four games discipline is not our strong suit. McCarthy should be stressing this much more. Even if we get a lead Atlanta will not put the game in Matt Ryan’s hands. Atlanta has not played a close game so if it comes down to it in the end it will be a mystery how they will respond. They average 9 points a game when they lose and 36 points when they win.

Atlanta is much stronger at stopping the pass than at stopping the run. This will play into their hands since we have not found our feet in the running game yet. The problem is they have played K.C, Tampa and Carolina who all run first so the numbers are skewed. The secondary is not scary. Lawyer Milloy is still back there trying to stay relevant. The strength is the DL even though it includes Grady Jackson. Even an aging John Abraham can apply pressure and a young talented Jamaal Anderson will be going against a Packers O-line looking to rebound from two bad weeks. Atlanta wants to attack with the four down linemen and free up the linebackers to get back into our passing lanes. Tampa did it and got 3 INTs. On offense Atlanta will just push Turner and Norwood as much as they can. Green Bay will need to run blitz effectively and maintain the initiative. This means we have to make the man-to-man coverage work and our DTs have to get a good push so we can leave our linebackers with maneuverability around the line of scrimmage. Losing Jenkins will hurt. KGB does not stop the run and actually leaves a large running lane when he sprints up field.

For coaching, McCarthy needs more imagination. This is a chance against a team that really wants to stay vanilla as much as possible. McCarthy needs to mix things up and keep the linebackers attacking play-action and on their heels when we run. McCarthy has been sadly predictable in the play-calling. I have several times called the play McCarthy was going to run. If I can do it so can professionals.

Keys for Packers to win: 1) O-line needs to play well and force Atlanta to blitz more. 2) Gain initiative against Atlanta’s LBs with screens, quick-hitting runs (no stretch runs) and use the TE in the middle of the field. 3) Free up LBs to attack the line of scrimmage more effectively. 4) Score early and then find the killer instinct to bury a team that is down, cannot let this team hang around.
Keys for Atlanta to win: 1) Run and run effectively, get to second level quickly and get to the outside. 2) Effective push with the defensive line so LBs do not have to be used in the blitz. 3) No second and long. 4) No turnovers. +3 in wins (+1 Detroit, +2 K.C.) and -1 in loses (Tampa -1, Carolina 0)